India faces challenges on its periphery— but a neighbour with nuclear weapons puts Delhi in a unique position: Walter C. Ladwig

Walter C. Ladwig teaches international relations at King's College London. Speaking to Srijana Mitra Das, he discusses India’s growing economic power — with its security implications:

Q. What is the core of your research?
A. A fundamental focus of my work is defence and foreign policy. I look at South Asia where I research the Indian military, the country’s foreign policy, US policy and intersections in the Indo- Pacific region. My work brings new data to bear on India’s international strategy.

Q. We are seeing India strike locations in Pakistan at a greater scale now than ever before — what is your analysis of this?
A. It seems to be a progression of what we’ve seen over the last decade-plus. Previously, there was an Indian government stance of turning the other cheek— in 2016, this changed and took on the form of surgical strikes as retaliation for the attacks on Uri and Pathankot. The 2019 Balakot airstrikes changed the equation again — until then, many saw only Kashmir as a place where both neighbours could clash but those airstrikes showed this was no longer the case. They established a trend of precision strikes against a large range of targets over a growing swathe of Pakistan. What is happening now is a step change— but it has roots in what has come before.


Q. Have India’s relations with the West evolved as well?
A. There have been some key changes. The United States-India relationship was progressing from the early 2000s but it was often the US moving along a somewhat reluctant and sceptical India. A profound shift since Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power was the emergence of a new energy on the Indian side — we now see India bringing ideas to the table and setting the agenda. India shows a real confidence in dealing with the West today — following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Europe and the US tried to pressure India to move away from Moscow. However, while it took steps that were meaningful for itself, India stuck firm to its principled stand. Finally, Europe and the Americans had to accept India’s position— Delhi did not bend to their will. If anyone tries to pressure India now, the response might well be the George Bush-era phrase, ‘You’re either with us — or against us’, implying that you’re standing with India— or with terrorists. A far more confident India now expects many of its allies to back it.

Q. Which are some of India’s most significant geopolitical partnerships today?
A. The relationship with the United States is the most important in terms of substance, which includes the value of the trade relationship, military technologies, intelligence-sharing collaborations and goodwill, drawing from the diaspora, etc. Russia is also very important. It is a reliable UN Security Council vote for India and a source of certain technologies — the US hasn’t yet been able to consider the lease of nuclear-powered submarines to India — while the French are a strong partner, having no relationship with Pakistan, long-standing security ties with Delhi, providing critical military tech, etc. Israel has been a very firm partner and interestingly, from Japan to Taiwan and South Korea, there is an abundance of goodwill for India — they often find doing business there hard but importantly, many middle powers want to do more with Delhi.

Q. The Pahalgam terrorist attack took place as Apple stated it was going to shift most assembly operations from China to India — was the timing significant?
A. It’s hard to understand the calculus of terrorists — of course, India was also hosting the US Vice President just then. The academic C. Christine Fair describes the mindset of the Pakistani army, explaining how, although they’ve lost every war they’ve ever fought with India, if they can hurt, harm or trip up India, they see themselves as successful. At a time when the Indian economy is growing at 7% and Delhi is getting these big wins, spoiling that party would make sense to them. The desire to disrupt India’s high-profile rise is there.

Q. India is growing richer — with a more assertive military. How can both evolve?
A. A robust Indian economy underwrites India’s national security. The defence budget has seen some
increases linked to overall growth. The richer India grows, it will give more to defence, boosting Delhi’s confidence.

Q. Are there other countries like India, which, on their upward trajectory, faced hostility from neighbouring nations?
A. Typically, when states rise, they prefer ensuring stability in their neighbourhood and then moving outwards. As the US rose, it tried to secure order in Mexico, the Caribbean, etc., to limit disruptions. As China grew, Beijing settled virtually all outstanding border disputes bar India, so they didn’t have to
worry about Russia, Central Asia, etc. It isn’t unprecedented for Delhi to have to contend with challenges on its periphery as it rises — however, the possession of nuclear weapons by a neighbour puts India in a unique position in comparison to any other major economy.

Views expressed are personal