Time is running out for Ukraine, says Nicholas Drummond

Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine continues to be a costly stalemate for both sides. The Pentagon estimates that 600,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or seriously injured, while Ukraine has lost an estimated 200,000.

Putin continues to play the long game, hoping that Ukraine will run out of soldiers and ammo before he does. With a Russian population of 140 million versus Ukraine's 40 million, an attritional strategy will eventually pay-off, albeit at a horrendous cost.

Ukraine's armed forces have mounted a heroic defence of their homeland, but their inability to achieve a significant breakthrough has weakened and isolated Zelensky. His political opponents say the time has come to negotiate peace with Russia. As the war approaches its third year, fatigue, a shortage of resources, and weakened economy are creating a genuine prospect of defeat.

NATO's lack of decisive support is a critical issue. Many European politicians, including the newly elected British government, fail to grasp the danger of a potential Russian victory. Should Putin succeed, it would justify his brutal tactics, strengthen Russia's imperial ambitions, and increase the threat to other former Soviet states.

Additionally, Ukraine's population would suffer greatly under Russian control. A victory would also strengthen Russia's alliances with China, Iran, and North Korea, potentially emboldening China to take aggressive action against Taiwan and enabling these nations to act in concert against Western interests.

Even if Putin secures a peace deal allowing him to retain captured Ukrainian territory, it would still be a significant win. Such an agreement would give Russia time to rebuild its army and economy, setting the stage for another expansionist move in the future. While Ukraine is struggling, Russia is also feeling the pain of prolonged conflict. Which is why Putin desperately seeks an "off-ramp."

He views the US election as an opportunity, believing that a Trump second-term would help him achieve a favourable outcome. Russia's ongoing disinformation campaign in the USA is aimed at influencing the election result.

Weapons of mass destruction remain the ultimate guarantor of UK security. The concept of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) means that weapons of mass destruction (WMD) would only ever be used as a last resort. Unfortunately, we have allowed our conventional forces to atrophy to such an extent that a nuclear response risks being our first and only recourse to counter direct aggression against us.

Putin knows that the use of nuclear weapons would lead to the annihilation of civilisation as we know it. Since the West would never preemptively use them against Russia, the risk of a nuclear exchange is slim. But if we are to credibly deter potential adversaries, it means we must restore our conventional capabilities.

Any military action against Russia must be strictly limited to ejecting its forces from Ukraine. The priority must be to help Ukraine now, or the West may face an even greater challenge if Russia turns its attention to other vulnerable nations. Helping Ukraine eject Russian forces is essential to preventing future, more costly conflicts.

• Nicholas Drummond is a highly regarded defence analyst and consultant based in London, UK, with extensive knowledge and experience of military strategy, land forces capabilities and defence procurement. A former British Army officer and McKinsey consultant, Drummond's insights are sought after by governments, defence contractors, and media outlets alike. He regularly comments on the changing nature of warfare, the importance of technological innovation, and the strategic challenges faced by modern armed forces.