: The week that was in international affairs

Welcome back to another edition of My Take 5, your roundup of top international news. It has been a week of heavy geopolitical developments centred on the 12-day Iran-Israel war. So let’s get to it:

Iran-Israel war: After an intense 12-day conflict between Iran and Isreal that saw the US bomb Tehran’s nuclear sites, a tentative ceasefire appears to be holding. But the big question everyone is asking is: What was it all about? Israel claims Iran was weeks away from making a nuclear bomb. Hence it had to act quickly and destroy Iran’s capabilities. Thus, it launched Operation Rising Lion by hitting Iranian military assets and nuclear sites. Note, however, that Netanyahu has been making statements about how close Iran is to a bomb for years. Nonetheless, the US joined him this time to hit Iran’s nuclear programme. Now there’s a big debate whether the strikes on Iranian nuclear sites actually served their purpose, especially the targeting of the facility in Fordow buried deep below a mountain. Some initial assessments say the damage was something that can be repaired by the Iranians within months. Add to this reports that Iranians may have moved critical equipment and uranium stockpiles much in advance of the strikes, and the whole ‘degrading Iran’s nuclear programme’ narrative begins to look iffy.

Plus, the Ayatollahs in Tehran are still in their place, negating any talk of regime change for the time being. So what did this short war achieve? Will Iran give up its nuclear programme? No. Will it give up its proxies in the region? No. Has Iran taken a hit? Yes, but so has Israel. Can Iran recover its nuclear project? Yes, knowledge and tech expertise can’t be destroyed. Are the Ayatollahs still in charge? Yes. Will Iran continue to support the Palestinian cause? Yes.

So, all that the war has done is given a brief preview of what a full-scale war in West Asia involving Israel, US and Iran may look like. Strategically, however, there are two points to be noted. First, in this conflict Israeli jets were able to freely fly from their home base through Syria and Iraq to Iran, establishing aerial dominance. This means that Syria allowed the Israeli flyovers and Iraq, though complained, couldn’t or wouldn’t stop the Israeli jets on their way to bombing Iran. This represents a fundamental strategic re-alignment in West Asia that increases Israel’s military leverage.

Second, it is my analysis that since the Assad regime’s fall in Syria last December, US and Israel appear to be keen on strategically remaking West Asia. The objective here is to drag in Russia and China. If the latter take the bait, they will be bogged down here for years. So far they have resisted the temptation. But if there is a push for regime change in Iran via proxies or local opposition forces, Russia and China are unlikely to stay away. With the former Crown Prince of Iran Reza Pahlavi calling for Ayatollah Khamenei to step down, this story isn’t over yet. But if Moscow in particular does get involved at some stage, it would mean pulling its military resources away from Ukraine and Europe. The Washington establishment then would have killed two birds with one stone.

Russia intensifies attacks on Ukraine: Russia continues to intensify its attacks on Ukraine with huge numbers of drones and missiles targeting Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure. After the devastating images of the Russian attacks on Kyiv in recent days where residential buildings were targeted and turned to rubble, this week the city of Dnipro was hit, killing at least 19 and injuring more than 300. A Ukrainian passenger train travelling from Odesa to Zaporizhzhia was also struck in the Dnipro strike, but luckily there were no fatalities.

Russia is no longer hiding the fact that it is targeting Ukrainian civilians. The recent intensity of its barrages shows that the aim is not only to inflict damage but also to break the spirits of the Ukrainian people. The latter, however, will not happen. Through more than three years of war, Ukrainians have proved themselves to be really resilient. And they will fight for their country and freedom every inch of the way.

That said, the fight has certainly become tougher for Kyiv given that American military aid has practically stopped. There is a serious crunch of air defence ammunition. The Ukrainians will be forced to improvise – which they have anyway done throughout the course of the war – but Russian attacks will slip through the gaps in the meantime.

Meanwhile, at an Economic Forum, Putin actually said that all of Ukraine belongs to Russia. It’s clear, therefore, that Moscow has no intention of ending this war on its own. It feels no pressure to negotiate. So the US strategy – as evidenced by the Nato summit this week where the summit declaration was perceived to be relatively weak on Russia – of negotiating an end to the war isn’t working. Moscow is just taking Washington for a ride and making maximalist demands that can never be agreed to – it has also been suggested in recent days that Nato should withdraw from the Baltics to end the war in Ukraine.

Washington would do well to see through Moscow’s tactics.

Baltics prepare: As a direct result of the Russian threat, construction of the Baltic Defence Line has begun in south-eastern Estonia with the digging of anti-tank ditches. This comes on top of the Baltic states, Poland and Finland already withdrawing from the Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Convention. The Baltics are clearly cognisant of the threat posed by Russia. In fact, on a trip to Estonia last month, this writer witnessed first hand Estonia’s solidarity with Ukraine, not just in words but through actions such as supply of key defence platforms, dual-use tech and training to Kyiv. Estonia is facing relentless Russian – and Chinese – cyberattacks from which it has to defence itself constantly. It is also at the receiving end of Moscow’s intimidation and grey-zone tactics. Therefore, Europe as a whole should coordinate more with Eastern Europe, specifically the Baltics, to monitor the security challenges posed by Russia. Raising defence spend to 5% of GDP by 2035, as agreed to at the latest Nato summit, is no longer an academic exercise. It is an imperative for the continent to meet its 21st century defence needs.


India-China border: India’s defence minister Rajnath Singh called on China to permanently settle the border dispute between the two countries. This is significant because it shows intent on New Delhi’s part to bury this long-pending thorn in India-China ties. After the 2020 Galwan clashes between the two militaries, India has been clear that it cannot be business as usual in bilateral ties unless the border issue is addressed. While some progress has been made on disengagement and patrolling at the contested sites in eastern Ladakh that had become flashpoints in 2020, the Indian military is not lowering its guard.

The truth is China doesn’t want to resolve the border issue. Politically, this helps the Chinese Communist Party because it can use the border issue to put pressure on India whenever it wants. This is Beijing’s way of keeping a check on New Delhi and making sure it doesn’t get too far ahead in South Asia.

There is no reason why India should play along here. We need to call out Beijing’s strategy and force it to clear its intentions. If It is not interested in solving the border issue, then it’s a clear sign that China will never accept India as an equal partner. China can’t have its cake and eat it too. It must choose between positive ties with India after a border settlement, or no meaningful business with New Delhi. Full bilateral ties can’t be realised without settling the border question.

Myanmar elections: Myanmar’s junta administration has hinted at elections in December this year and January next year. This is an extraordinary proposition. The junta has locked up and executed a huge number of people associated with the previous civilian administration, it has lost vast tracts of territory to armed rebel groups, and most democratic opposition groups will boycott the polls under these circumstances anyway. Therefore, even if the polls go ahead, it is difficult to see how they will be free and fair, or truly representative of the will of the people of the country. The junta is simply trying to attain some legitimacy for itself through these polls. It won’t work.