When Russian drones crossed into Polish airspace this week, Nato scrambled jets, Warsaw sounded alarm, and Europe braced for escalation. But it was the response from Washington, more specifically, from President Donald Trump that quickly became the centre of global attention.
“What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social, before telling reporters that the incursion “could have been a mistake.”
The ambiguous phrasing unsettled allies who view Poland’s security as central to Nato’s credibility. As Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk curtly responded: “We would also wish that the drone attack on Poland was a mistake. But it wasn’t. And we know it.”
Also read: Nato sounds alarm as Russian drones shot over Poland
A day later, Trump urged Nato countries to stop buying Russian oil as a means of pressuring Putin into ending the war in Ukraine. Trump's post also signaled his frustration with Nato, with the POTUS claiming that the alliance's commitment to ending the war "has been far less than 100%" and called the continued purchase of Russian oil by some members “shocking.” Addressing Nato countries, he said: “It greatly weakens your negotiating position and bargaining power over Russia.”
Putin’s provocation meets Trump’s hesitation
The incursion involved more than a dozen drones, making it unlikely to be accidental. Military analysts see it as deliberate probing by Vladimir Putin, a hallmark of his “salami slicing” strategy, pushing boundaries in small, incremental steps to test adversaries’ resolve.
Nicholas Kristof, writing in the New York Times, described it as “an enormous escalation by President Vladimir Putin” and a direct test of Nato. One stray drone could be dismissed, he noted, but multiple incursions were intentional: “That’s how Putin operates: He tests and measures the reaction.”
The episode also highlighted Putin’s belief that Trump’s refusal so far to impose the harsh sanctions he has threatened makes now the right time to push. In January, Trump warned of “high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions” against Moscow; in May he promised measures that would be “crushing for Russia.” Deadlines came and went, but no action followed. As Kristof put it: “After this parade of bluster, of course, Putin doesn’t take Trump’s warnings seriously.”
Nato caught in the middle
For Nato leaders, the incursion is less about drones and more about deterrence. Secretary general Mark Rutte said a full assessment was ongoing but praised the swift allied response.
Benjamin Godwin of PRISM Strategic Intelligence told CNBC: “Russia is able to sort of escalate in these very, as we say in the UK, salami-slicing ways and Nato has proven incapable so far in responding in any effective way.”
Nato allies have since reinforced defences on the eastern flank and discussed new sanctions. But as Oksana Nechyporenko of the Atlantic Council warned, “the softer the West’s reaction to Russia’s violation of Polish airspace, the harder the next blow will be.”
That puts Trump’s words and the gap between his threats and actions under sharper scrutiny. If Washington downplays deliberate violations of Nato airspace, analysts warn, it risks weakening deterrence and emboldening Moscow to push further.
What comes next
The drone incursion has forced Nato back into crisis mode, but it has also pulled Trump squarely into the spotlight. His reaction will be read not only in Warsaw and Brussels, but in Moscow and Beijing.
Trump once criticised Barack Obama for making “blank threats,” insisting: “The United States no longer makes empty threats. When I make promises, I keep them.” Now, allies and adversaries alike are watching closely to see whether that still holds true.
“What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social, before telling reporters that the incursion “could have been a mistake.”
The ambiguous phrasing unsettled allies who view Poland’s security as central to Nato’s credibility. As Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk curtly responded: “We would also wish that the drone attack on Poland was a mistake. But it wasn’t. And we know it.”
Also read: Nato sounds alarm as Russian drones shot over Poland
A day later, Trump urged Nato countries to stop buying Russian oil as a means of pressuring Putin into ending the war in Ukraine. Trump's post also signaled his frustration with Nato, with the POTUS claiming that the alliance's commitment to ending the war "has been far less than 100%" and called the continued purchase of Russian oil by some members “shocking.” Addressing Nato countries, he said: “It greatly weakens your negotiating position and bargaining power over Russia.”
Putin’s provocation meets Trump’s hesitation
The incursion involved more than a dozen drones, making it unlikely to be accidental. Military analysts see it as deliberate probing by Vladimir Putin, a hallmark of his “salami slicing” strategy, pushing boundaries in small, incremental steps to test adversaries’ resolve.
Nicholas Kristof, writing in the New York Times, described it as “an enormous escalation by President Vladimir Putin” and a direct test of Nato. One stray drone could be dismissed, he noted, but multiple incursions were intentional: “That’s how Putin operates: He tests and measures the reaction.”
The episode also highlighted Putin’s belief that Trump’s refusal so far to impose the harsh sanctions he has threatened makes now the right time to push. In January, Trump warned of “high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions” against Moscow; in May he promised measures that would be “crushing for Russia.” Deadlines came and went, but no action followed. As Kristof put it: “After this parade of bluster, of course, Putin doesn’t take Trump’s warnings seriously.”
Nato caught in the middle
For Nato leaders, the incursion is less about drones and more about deterrence. Secretary general Mark Rutte said a full assessment was ongoing but praised the swift allied response.
Benjamin Godwin of PRISM Strategic Intelligence told CNBC: “Russia is able to sort of escalate in these very, as we say in the UK, salami-slicing ways and Nato has proven incapable so far in responding in any effective way.”
Nato allies have since reinforced defences on the eastern flank and discussed new sanctions. But as Oksana Nechyporenko of the Atlantic Council warned, “the softer the West’s reaction to Russia’s violation of Polish airspace, the harder the next blow will be.”
That puts Trump’s words and the gap between his threats and actions under sharper scrutiny. If Washington downplays deliberate violations of Nato airspace, analysts warn, it risks weakening deterrence and emboldening Moscow to push further.
What comes next
The drone incursion has forced Nato back into crisis mode, but it has also pulled Trump squarely into the spotlight. His reaction will be read not only in Warsaw and Brussels, but in Moscow and Beijing.
Trump once criticised Barack Obama for making “blank threats,” insisting: “The United States no longer makes empty threats. When I make promises, I keep them.” Now, allies and adversaries alike are watching closely to see whether that still holds true.
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